Alpine Fault's 75-Percent Rupture Risk

New Zealand's Alpine Fault has a 75 percent chance of rupturing within the next 50 years, and the rupture would produce an earthquake around magnitude 8. The 600-kilometer fault runs along the spine of the South Island, forming the on-land boundary between the Pacific and Australian tectonic plates. It has ruptured four times in the past 1,100 years, producing an earthquake of about magnitude 8 each time. The next rupture would cause one of New Zealand's largest earthquakes since European settlement.

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