DARPA Policy Analysis Market Scandal

In 2003, the Pentagon backed an online "terror futures" market that let participants bet on events such as future assassinations, terror attacks, and coups in the Middle East. The project, run through DARPA and called the Policy Analysis Market, aimed to use market forces and expert bets to predict political instability and security threats. When news reports revealed that traders could profit by wagering on things like the assassination of foreign leaders, lawmakers from both parties condemned the idea as grotesque and morally wrong. Under intense political pressure and public outrage, the Pentagon shut the program down before it fully launched.

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